The Transcript：AI Bottlenecks——AI 支出对美国 GDP、利率与消费者的影响

Summary: The US economy is very strong. Consumers are resilient, and AI spending is having a measurable impact on GDP.

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Macro

Some consumers are strained, but the economy is very strong
“So, you can see there’s still, still strong demand, but I think you do feel the customer, there’s a consumer that is still clearly feeling the pain and struggling and having to stretch a lot further to, with that, with that dollar. And I think that does exist. There’s no question when we look at the underlying results. But at the same time, the fundamentals around the economy, at least from what we’re seeing through the second quarter, remain very, very strong.” - Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) CEO Greg Abel

“So we see the U.S. consumer being very resilient and holding up. And we see the consumer in the U.S. responding really well to where we lean into these key categories and key franchises.” - PVH () CEO Stefan Larson

AI spending is moving the needle on GDP
“And in terms of economic impact, the economic impact is significant, especially for the U.S. economy....AI contributes around 1.5% to 2% of the U.S. gross domestic product, as well as 50% of the growth in net imports, right?” - Expeditors International of Washington (), Onyx Sr. Geopolitical Analyst Suryo Nugroho

AI spending is also moving the needle on bond yields
“I think what’s driving it in large part is higher yields is really a strong U.S. economy and a strong economic outlook fueled by big investments in AI and data centers and technology in general. So I see this as more of a reflection of the strength of the economy. We’re not seeing it in terms of inflation compensation. We’re seeing it mostly in real rates.” - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams

AI is also impacting political narratives
“I think part of the backlash is just from fear. There’s just a fear that my jobs are going to go away. The AI boom, for good or for bad, has benefited a lot of people, and there’s a lot of people who have no benefit from it, right? And there’s a lot of America, just again on the American political scene, who it’s tough to make the mortgage, you know, their paychecks haven’t gone up, and now they’ve got this AI thing that just looks going to be even harder. So I think the data centers become a bullseye, unfortunately, for all the things that could be bad about AI.” - ARM () CEO Rene Haas

Bessent is trying to slow things down
“Well, I didn’t say I was trying to change the direction that the I don’t believe that I can change the equilibrium price, but nothing is ever in equilibrium. You’re either moving from equilibrium or away from equilibrium. And financial journalists maybe not you, job and hedge fund managers’ job is to speed things up. Mine is to speed things down and make sure that everything is fact-based to let market participants know that things maybe aren’t a one-way trip.” - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent