The Transcript：美国经济、消费与就业市场保持稳定
Steady as She Goes
The Transcript 宏观综述指出美国经济延续韧性，Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz 称其近 300 家被投企业数据显示美国实际经济年增速为 2% 至 2.5%，企业营收年增 6%。
Summary: The economic narrative remained on a steady course last week without much change. Economic activity remains resilient, led by datacenter construction. Consumer spending is stable.
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Macro
U.S. economic activity remains resilient
“The market and U.S. economy continue to display a remarkable degree of resilience in the face of the war in the Middle East, significant pressure on energy markets, stubborn inflation and increasing public market volatility related to questions around AI. When we look at our proprietary data, largely KPIs rolled up each month across our nearly 300 portfolio companies, we see a U.S. economy that continues to expand at an annual rate of 2% to 2.5% in real terms with 6% annual growth in corporate revenues.” - The Carlyle Group () CEO Harvey Schwartz
Consumer spending is still stable
“In the month of July, we just got the final sort of payments report. The consumers of Bank of America put 5% more in the economy, and what you’ve been seeing in June and July is that the if you do a third, a third, third, high income, medium income, low income, the lower income people’s wages grow a little faster. And they’re spending a little bit more, and so you’re starting to see more convergence in the spending patterns.” - Bank of America () CEO Brian Moynihan
“...we saw stable underlying transaction, volume and account trends across the business, driving recurring revenue growth of 2% in the quarter with recurring revenue representing 84% of our total adjusted revenue.” - Fiserv () CFO Paul Todd
“While consumers remain under pressure and month-to-month consumption patterns are choppy, demand across our categories has remained relatively stable” - Kimberly-Clark () COO Russell Torres
The labor market is stable but subdued
“Looking to the second half of 2026, the labor market remains stable even as overall hires and quits rate remain near their lowest level since 2015” - ZipRecruiter () President Dave Travers
International
来源：The Transcript（全球高管言论精选） · thetranscript.substack.com