The Big Picture：周四上午 10 条必读

My morning reads:

• Investors look to shelter portfolios from rising AI concentration risks: Fund managers see hedge funds and emerging markets assets as bulwarks against sudden shift in sentiment on artificial intelligence  (Financial Times)

• Exponential Wealth: Centuries of Stock and Bond Returns: Fifty years after the original SBBI, Roger Ibbotson and Larry Siegel assemble a full monograph on long-run returns. $1 in US stocks at year-end 1925 grew to $14,751; after inflation, $814. Includes Goetzmann on bubbles, booms and crashes back to 1792. (CFA Institute Research Foundation) see also The Cross-Section of Stock Returns before CRSP: Baltussen, van Vliet and van Vliet build an independent database of US stocks from 1866 to 1926. Beta’s link to returns is flat; value, momentum, low-risk and seasonality premia hold up out of sample, while size and reversal are weak. (SSRN)

• Interest Rates Rise with Inflation and Deficits Under Trump: Steve Rattner: the 30-year Treasury yield is up about three-quarters of a point since Trump returned to office, to its highest since 2002. The Fed doesn’t set long rates; markets pricing in inflation and federal debt do. (Steve Rattner)

• The Diesel Weapon: Why a rather unglamorous fuel is suddenly at the centre of a transatlantic power struggle, and why this matters for all of us (Material World) see also Trump L’Oil: A Fake Fix for High Diesel Prices. His proposal to ban exports of U.S.-made diesel is likely to backfire spectacularly. (The Bulwark)

• The Clarity Act collapses: Regulators race to reassure the crypto industry as the industry’s flagship legislation collapses, SBF tries his luck with the Supreme Court, and crypto PACs unleash $30 million against Sherrod Brown (Citation Needed)

• Your Driverless Cab Is Spying on You: Self-driving cars from Waymo, Zoox, and Tesla are studded with cameras and sensors. Some of them are pointing at riders. (Wired)

• ‘A kind of Rosetta Stone’: AI decodes 217-year-old secret letter ordered by Napoleon: GPT-6 Astra has been used to solve a centuries-old cipher used to convey strategic military information between Napoleon’s troops. A 217-year-old secret letter ordered by Napoleon to convey strategic military information between Napoleon’s troops. (Live Science)

• Magic Bullet? Sci-Fi Laser Weapons Are Now An Anti-Drone Reality. Multiple attempts have been made to develop laser weapons since the first US shootdown of a drone aircraft with a laser in 1973 but the technology had remained experimental until recently. (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty)

• Here’s How California Closed the Montana License Plate Loophole: Everybody’s favorite automotive tax evasion scheme just got a whole lot trickier to pull off. (The Drive)

• Will Netanyahu Escape His Reckoning? In his bid for reëlection, the Israeli Prime Minister is doing everything in his power to smear his opponents and evade blame for the security fiasco of October 7th. (New Yorker)

Video of the day: Why everyone stopped buying Lululemon

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend Maria Vassalou, Head of the Pictet Research Institute, part of Pictet management, running over a trillion dollars in client assets. The Geneva-based, group-wide research capability. The Institute has its own staff of PhD-level researchers and collaborates with outside academics and think tanks; its mandate is deliberately long-term and strategic rather than tactical, covering strategic asset allocation, portfolio construction, risk premia, capital market structures, global economic and investment trends, and sustainability.

The Only Billionaires Making Money This Year Are In Tech

Source: Bloomberg

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