美联储上周加息 主席Warsh称撤出部分宽松 多家银行高管称经济与消费强劲

Summary: The Fed raised rates last week. Warsh implied that he sees policy as relatively accommodative. In AI, safety has taken center stage. Safety programs will require even more compute.

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Macro

The Fed raised rates
“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little. But inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the committee’s 2 percent goal. This committee will deliver price stability.” - Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh

Warsh wants markets to know that he’s serious about inflation
“Today’s action starts to show we’re serious about this, and we will deliver on the price stability objective, and as the statement said, we’ll do it on a timelier basis.” - Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh

He views rates as accommodative
“I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the committee. So we removed a dose of accommodation.” - Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh

He thinks three factors are driving up longer-term yields
“I think part of the reason why we’ve seen over the course of 2026 long-term yields go up is the economy has strengthened. Second reason, competition for capital....the so-called hyperscalers are out in the market raising funding....The third is geopolitics. The situation in hot spots around the world are driving long-term yields.” - Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh

Higher rates aren’t expected to knock the economy off balance
“So we feel very good about the underlying U.S. economy. And our team, like your team has mid-2s growth for the year and Fed will raise rates, but it won’t knock the economy off its movement.” - Bank of America () CEO Brian Moynihan

The economy remains resilient
“...client activity generally remains constructive. The economy appears resilient...feel like when we talk to our clients, they’re telling us, regardless of that source of uncertainty, they’re getting comfortable sort of navigating this area.” - KeyCorp () CFO Clark Khayat

“...you’ve got a really strong sort of employment picture with unemployment still quite low...it’s hard to see sort of what’s going to be the catalyst for that to change at this point.” - Wells Fargo () CFO Michael Santomassimo

Consumers are doing well
“Consumers continue to spend, consumers continue to pay their bills on time. That’s the simplest version. So if I talk about spend for a second, we are seeing around 6% year-on-year spend momentum.” - Citigroup () CFO Gonzalo Luchetti

“I’m sure a lot of analysts in this room were always surprised and heartened by the strength of the consumer” - Yum! Brands () CFO Ranjith Roy

“...despite the inflation and tariffs and wars that are going on, the consumer seems to be in a pretty good place.” - Capital One Financial () CEO Richard Fairbank

“...the reality is that there was more spending on cruise bookings, more spending on restaurants...consumer spending on a broad-based out-of-home entertainment has been big. The movies have come back because they’ve had some good movies. So the consumer is spending money” - Bank of America () CEO Brian Moynihan

Consumer spending isn’t just resilient, it’s strong
“I think -- when you look at the consumer side, I stopped using this word resilient because it’s just strong.” - Wells Fargo () CFO Michael Santomassimo

“Unemployment is low. The new job creation just rebounded very recently. Consumer spending is pretty strong. Bank balances, when we look at bank balances, they are up a little bit over last year on average per person.” - Capital One Financial () CEO Richard Fairbank

CEO confidence is high
“I told you at the beginning of the year, we’re going to have [higher inflation and interest rates]. You wouldn’t have said, “Well, that we’d expect higher CEO confidence.” But what I think is underpinning that, look at earnings growth...CEOs feel like they can really drive earnings at the moment.” - The Goldman Sachs Group () CEO David Solomon

“You would honestly not know that we’re at war, oil is above 100 for 10 years higher than it’s been since 2007. We have a hawkish Fed, hawkish central banks in Europe. Our clients are seeing through the market volatility and the fog of uncertainty, and they’ve been incredibly resilient.” - JPMorgan Chase () CEO of Commercial & Investment Bank Doug Petno

“...whether it’s executive search, Professional Search, RPO, or Interim. We are starting to see a lot more confidence in hiring decisions being made.” - Korn Ferry () CFO Robert Rozek

Hyperscalers are spending $8 trillion over the next 5 years
“...with respect to AI financing, if everyone is right and the build-out of the compute capability in the next 5 years is going to take $8 trillion, there’s going to be a lot of financing to do that. Now I’m not sure it’s going to be a straight line. I’m not sure everybody is estimating at the end of the day, the right capital needs that they’ve got the right pricing models. But I do think there’s going to be a lot of demand, and there’s going to be a lot of needs.” - The Goldman Sachs Group () CEO David Solomon

Nothing is flashing red
“I think the U.S. is a bright spot, one of the more relatively stable and strong parts of the global economy right now. But I don’t -- we don’t really see anything flashing red and very little flashing yellow. Anything that’s flashing yellow would sort of fall in the category of companies that are in the center of the bull’s eye for disruption for AI or anything exposed to the low end of the U.S. consumer demographic.” - JPMorgan Chase () CEO of Commercial & Investment Bank Doug Petno

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