The Transcript 的 Catalyst Watch：通胀预期正在扩大
Catalyst Watch
The Transcript 本周 Catalyst Watch 指出，油价上涨与 AI 支出正推动通胀预期重定价，高油价正被视为新常态。RH CEO Gary Friedman 称未来 six to 12 个月将处于更高成本的世界，原材料全面涨价且都受油价影响。通胀已连续 6 年高于 Fed 的 2% 目标，中期与长期通胀预期能否在没有 Fed 行动的情况下保持锚定受到关注。
Welcome to Catalyst Watch at The Transcript, a report for paid subscribers that highlights investment themes from this week’s newsletter.
1. Inflation Expectations are Broadening
Earlier this year, rising oil prices were viewed as a relatively transient driver of inflation. However, the longer the conflict with Iran has dragged on, the more that higher oil prices are coming to be viewed as a new normal. This, along with AI spending, appears to be starting to rebase inflation expectations. We’ve noted sentiment along these lines in past issues of Catalyst Watch. This week, a comment from Restoration Hardware stood out:
“We are going to be in a higher-cost world for probably at least the next six to 12 months. Even if tomorrow they end the war, there is too much inflation in the pipeline. All the raw materials are going up everywhere, on everything. Everything is impacted by oil. That is why you are seeing crazy things. We are trying to manipulate currencies, buying back things. It is a crazy time.” - RH (RH 2.01%↑) CEO Gary Friedman
The Fed is likely still more concerned about medium- and longer-term inflation expectations than 6-12 month expectations, but we’re now going on 6 years of inflation running above the Fed’s 2% target. Can medium- and longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored without Fed action?
来源：The Transcript（全球高管言论精选） · thetranscript.substack.com