利率真的高吗？美联储官员与 Oaktree 的 Howard Marks 最新表态

Summary: Interest rates are rising. Consumer spending is strong. Memory and energy are bottlenecks to AI.

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Macro

FOMC members see broadening inflation
“Currently, I anticipate that productivity gains will provide modest disinflation within the next few years. However, I do not expect those effects to arrive in time to offset the broadening inflationary pressure later this year.” - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook

The Trump administration argues that inflation is low
“When I’m thinking about what future inflation is, then I look at the last three months of core.... When you annualize it, you know what the number is? 2%.... Right now I think that markets believe in future Fed credibility, but I think the argument that I would make if I were a governor is that if core is 2%, then why are we hiking?” - U.S. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett

Political pressure is being directed at the board, not Warsh
“The other thing about the Fed, and you know how long I’ve been close friends with Kevin Warsh…, he’s managing an unusually partisan Fed...If you go back to 1913, when chairmen, when their term is up, they leave. The same has been true for vice chairs… So why are they sticking around if not to worry about what the future Fed is going to do?” - U.S. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett

Rates really aren’t that high yet
“And by the way -- and everybody says, what do you think about these high rates? What do you think about these high rates? What do you think about higher for longer? And the first thing I always say is these are not high rates. They’re high relative to the rates that have prevailed since ‘09 when the Fed decided to cut the Fed funds rate to 0 to save the world financial system, but these are not high rates. These are quite low rates relative to the long sweep of history.” - Oaktree Capital Management Co-Chairman Howard Marks

International

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